Tuesday, March 17, 2015

RETURN ON COLLEGE

Let's say you're giving your niece or grandson some advice on which major to select in college. Do you tell them to get an art degree, or take courses in social sciences? Or should they focus on business and finance?

The decision should not ignore their natural abilities and interests, of course. But if they're looking for the best return on their tuition dollar, then they might consider spending their time in the computer sciences and math buildings.

This information comes from a report published by PayScale.com, which helps people manage their careers and figure out what they're worth on the job market. PayScale's research team tracked the median salary for people who completed its salary survey online. They then compared the 20-year earnings of people following different careers with what was earned, on average, by competing workers with a high school diploma but no college degree. Then they subtracted the cost of 4 years of college tuition, to arrive at a return on investment figure-the additional money the degree provided. Advanced degrees like law and medicine were excluded; the survey focused on bachelors degrees.

The results were striking. Business and finance majors came away with a respectable $331,345 average ROI over 20 years, but they actually finished a distant third on the list, just ahead of sales, marketing and public relations ($318,212). The highest ranking majors, by this metric, were computer and math, whose degree-holders saw a net return on their tuition investment of $584,339 over the 20 years after graduation. These nerdy individuals nosed out the architecture and engineering graduates, whose average ROI came to $561,475.

Life, physical and social sciences majors fared somewhat less well, earning almost exactly $250,000 more than their high school diploma competition. Graduates with an arts, design, entertainment and related degree came in last in the survey; they are expected to make a little over $125,000 as a result of their college training.

Interestingly, the PayScale website also tracks the average return on tuition investment for different colleges. Graduates of Harvey Mudd College in Claremont, CA can expect to earn nearly $1 million over the 20 years after graduation, with a typical starting salary north of $75,000-with a 4-year college investment of $237,700. Numbers 2-10 on the rankings include the California Institute of Technology ($901,400 earnings, $221,600 cost); The Stevens Institute of Technology in Hoboken, NJ ($841,000; $232,000), the Colorado School of Mines in Golden, CO ($831,000; $112,000); Babson College in Wellesley, MA ($812,800; $230,200); Stanford University ($809,000; $233,300); the Massachusetts Institute of Technology ($798,500; $224,500); Georgia Institute of Technology ($796,300; $86,700); Princeton University ($795,700; $217,300); and the Virginia Military Institute ($767,300; $95,700).

You can look up your own alma mater here: http://www.payscale.com/college-roi/

Sources:  

http://www.payscale.com/college-roi/

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-05/the-career-with-the-biggest-financial-payoff?hootPostID=293b20e2f9470947cb0facdcea7f70ea
Sincerely,
Bill Morrissey, CFP® and Tammy Prouty, CFP®
Sound Financial Planning, Inc.
Primary Office
425 Commercial St., Ste 203
Mount Vernon, WA 98273
Phone: (360) 336-6527

Secondary Office
650 Mullis St., Ste 101
Friday Harbor, WA 98250
(360) 378-3022

PLEASE READ THIS WARNING: All e-mail sent to or from this address will be received or otherwise recorded by the Sound Financial Planning, Inc. corporate e-mail system and is subject to archival, monitoring and/or review, by and/or disclosure to, someone other than the recipient. This message is intended only for the use of the person(s) ("intended recipient") to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential. If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender as soon as possible and delete the message without reading it or making a copy. Any dissemination, distribution, copying, or other use of this message or any of its content by any person other than the intended recipient is strictly prohibited. Sound Financial Planning, Inc. has taken precautions to screen this message for viruses, but we cannot guarantee that it is virus free nor are we responsible for any damage that may be caused by this message. Sound Financial Planning, Inc. only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or notice filed, or excluded or exempted from registration requirements. Follow-up and individualized responses that involve either the effecting or attempting to effect transactions in securities or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, as the case may be, will not be made absent compliance with state investment adviser and investment adviser representative registration requirements, or an applicable exemption or exclusion. This information should not be construed as investment advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. WE WOULD LIKE TO CREDIT THIS ARTICLE'S CONTENT TO BOB VERES.

Monday, March 9, 2015

IS GOOD NEWS REALLY BAD NEWS?

You may have read last week that the U.S. stock market took a tumble based on what would seem like really good news: that the U.S. unemployment rate is falling faster than anybody expected. If you're scratching your head, you're not alone.

First, let's focus on the good news and what it may mean. At the beginning of 2015, there were 3 million more Americans at work than the year before. The unemployment rate had fallen to 5.5%-a level that economists at the International Monetary Fund had projected that the U.S. wouldn't achieve until 2018 at the earliest.

Then came the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report for February, which showed a seasonally-adjusted increase of 295,000 jobs (nonfarm payroll employment), well ahead of projections. America has not only pulled out of the long unemployment slump triggered by the Great Recession; it is now creating jobs faster than at any time since 2000, roughly equal to the go-go economy of the late 1990s. The government report noted that there are 1.7 million fewer unemployed persons today than there were at this time last year. More importantly, perhaps, there are 1.1 million fewer people in the "long-term unemployed"category, which is now down to 2.7 million overall.

How can this be considered bad news for U.S. stocks? There are three possible explanations. First, the labor markets may be creeping toward that place where businesses have to compete for talent and pay their workers higher wages. When payrolls go up, it eats into corporate profits. There is little direct evidence this is happening yet-overall, wages are up just 2% in the past year, roughly even with inflation. But there are reports that small business employers have more unfilled job openings than at any time since April 2006. Meanwhile, the average workweek is inching up, which suggests that companies need people at their desks longer than they did before.

If the unemployment rate hits 5.4%-which could happen this Spring-then our economy will have reached what Federal Reserve economists consider to be "full employment."This, of course, does not mean what those words actually say; it is a coded way of saying that the balance of negotiating power will have started to shift from employers to workers.

Reason number two is bond rates. While stocks were tumbling last week, bond yields were moving in the opposite direction in what was described as the biggest one-day selloff since November 2013. The yields on 10-year Treasuries rose from 2.11% to 2.239% in a single day. As bonds become more competitive with stocks, demand for stocks goes down-and so do stock prices. Interestingly, the stocks with the highest dividends tended to be the biggest losers in the selloff, suggesting that some investors who were temporarily relying on stocks for income are shifting back to bonds.

But perhaps the biggest reason for the market's angst is concern about the next move by Federal Reserve Board. Fed chairperson Janet Yellen has made it clear that the health of the U.S. labor market will factor into her decision on when to finally allow short-term interest rates to rise. The good unemployment news could accelerate that schedule; at the worst, it probably confirms the current unofficial timetable of graduated rise beginning in June. For the impact that would have, go back to reason number two.

How credible are these three concerns? Should we be worried? It's helpful to remember that higher employment means more money in the pockets of consumers, which can trigger a virtuous circle of more spending, more corporate revenues, a healthier economy. We've learned from past experience that the stock market is easily spooked by shadows and headlines, by good news as well as bad news. Bond rates are still pretty low compared with historical numbers, and the possible threat of higher payrolls is not exactly the same as seeing them show up in the actual workforce. (Remember those 2.7 million long-term unemployed workers still searching for any kind of a paycheck.)

Short-term traders, who measure their investment horizon on the second hand of their watch, can panic if they want to. Those of us who measure our investment horizon with a calendar should be celebrating another milestone in the U.S. economy's long and fitful recovery.

Sources:  

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/06/us-usa-economy-idUSKBN0M20E620150306

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2015/03/americas-jobs-report?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/thewinningstreakcontinues

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/03/06/economists-react-to-the-february-jobs-report-full-employment/

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/stocks-tumble-as-dollar-bond-yields-soar-on-us-jobs-report-20150306-00624

Sincerely,
Bill Morrissey, CFP® and Tammy Prouty, CFP®
Sound Financial Planning, Inc.
Primary Office
425 Commercial St., Ste 203
Mount Vernon, WA 98273
Phone: (360) 336-6527

Secondary Office
650 Mullis St., Ste 101
Friday Harbor, WA 98250
(360) 378-3022

PLEASE READ THIS WARNING: All e-mail sent to or from this address will be received or otherwise recorded by the Sound Financial Planning, Inc. corporate e-mail system and is subject to archival, monitoring and/or review, by and/or disclosure to, someone other than the recipient. This message is intended only for the use of the person(s) ("intended recipient") to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential. If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender as soon as possible and delete the message without reading it or making a copy. Any dissemination, distribution, copying, or other use of this message or any of its content by any person other than the intended recipient is strictly prohibited. Sound Financial Planning, Inc. has taken precautions to screen this message for viruses, but we cannot guarantee that it is virus free nor are we responsible for any damage that may be caused by this message. Sound Financial Planning, Inc. only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or notice filed, or excluded or exempted from registration requirements. Follow-up and individualized responses that involve either the effecting or attempting to effect transactions in securities or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, as the case may be, will not be made absent compliance with state investment adviser and investment adviser representative registration requirements, or an applicable exemption or exclusion. This information should not be construed as investment advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. WE WOULD LIKE TO CREDIT THIS ARTICLE'S CONTENT TO BOB VERES.

TAX SEASON PHONE SCAMS

Beware of crooks calling you up & claiming to be the IRS.

Every year, con artists posing as the Internal Revenue Service perpetrate scams on taxpayers. Their weapon is a telephone, and they use it to leave thousands of households poorer. These gambits can seem very convincing, but you need not fall prey to them if you are informed.

The IRS will never call you up & demand money. Nor will the IRS contact you by phone to discuss your refund. In addition, it will not use social media, text messages or emails out of the blue to talk about tax matters with you.1

Not everyone knows this, and these criminals exploit that fact. In particular, these crooks target immigrants and elders. They presume that these demographic groups do not understand tax law and tax collection proceedings as well as others. Sometimes the caller ID will even suggest the "IRS" to further the scam.1
Since December 2013, federal investigators have detected about 290,000 fraudulent IRS calls made to homes and businesses. About 3,000 people succumbed to these scams during that period, forking over a total of $14 million in "back taxes" - roughly $5,000 per taxpayer.2

What are the telltale signs of a bogus IRS call? The classic sign is the demand for an immediate payment of "taxes" when no bill for delinquent taxes has been sent to you by the IRS to begin with. The IRS nearly always makes initial contact with taxpayers by mail.2  

Another common move is asking for a credit or debit card number. In one common scam, the caller alleges that you have unpaid back taxes that can only be settled by buying a prepaid debit card (and by supplying the card number to the caller).1

Bullying is another red flag. In another prevalent scam, a message may be left saying that this is a "final notice from the Internal Revenue Service" and tell you that the IRS is filing a lawsuit against you on a business or personal tax issue. Threats of arrest, deportation or losing your driver's license may be made. The caller may also tell you that you have no way to appeal, no chance to plead innocence - you are guilty and must pay taxes owed now.1,2

How can you report frauds like this? If you know for a fact that you do not owe any back taxes, call up the office of the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration (TIGTA) at 1-800-366-4484 and report what happened to you. (TIGTA is on the Web at tigta.gov.) Alternately, go to FTC Complaint Assistant website maintained by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and file a complaint there (click on "Other" in the right-side menu, and then click on "Imposter Scams"). Start your notes with the phrase "IRS Telephone Scam."1

If you think you actually might owe some back taxes, call the IRS instead at 1-800-829-1040 as that really should be resolved; IRS staffers can assist you with such a matter.1

Watch out for these crooks, and let others know about their tactics so that they may avoid becoming victims.

Citations.
1 - irs.gov/uac/Newsroom/Scam-Phone-Calls-Continue;-IRS-Identifies-Five-Easy-Ways-to-Spot-Suspicious-Calls [10/29/14]
2 - cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2015/01/nearly_3000_people_in_us_have.html [1/23/15]

Sincerely,
Bill Morrissey, CFP® and Tammy Prouty, CFP®
Sound Financial Planning, Inc.
Primary Office
425 Commercial St., Ste 203
Mount Vernon, WA 98273
Phone: (360) 336-6527

Secondary Office
650 Mullis St., Ste 101
Friday Harbor, WA 98250
(360) 378-3022

PLEASE READ THIS WARNING: All e-mail sent to or from this address will be received or otherwise recorded by the Sound Financial Planning, Inc. corporate e-mail system and is subject to archival, monitoring and/or review, by and/or disclosure to, someone other than the recipient. This message is intended only for the use of the person(s) ("intended recipient") to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential. If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender as soon as possible and delete the message without reading it or making a copy. Any dissemination, distribution, copying, or other use of this message or any of its content by any person other than the intended recipient is strictly prohibited. Sound Financial Planning, Inc. has taken precautions to screen this message for viruses, but we cannot guarantee that it is virus free nor are we responsible for any damage that may be caused by this message. Sound Financial Planning, Inc. only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or notice filed, or excluded or exempted from registration requirements. Follow-up and individualized responses that involve either the effecting or attempting to effect transactions in securities or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, as the case may be, will not be made absent compliance with state investment adviser and investment adviser representative registration requirements, or an applicable exemption or exclusion. This information should not be construed as investment advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. WE WOULD LIKE TO CREDIT THIS ARTICLE'S CONTENT TO MARKETING PRO INC.