Monday, August 31, 2009

Clearing Up the Health Care Debate

CLEARING UP THE HEALTH CARE DEBATE
Who would fund the reforms? Would there really be a “death list”?
Sorting out the possibilities, facts and misconceptions.

The town hall debates over health care reform have ignited Americans like few recent issues. Discourses have become shouting matches. Away from the noise, here is a roundup of where things currently stand.

Who would pay for all this? Over the next 10 years, the federal government will need (by President Obama’s estimation) $950 billion to fund its health care programs. As planned, roughly a third of the money will be raised through increased revenues (i.e., limiting tax deductions for the wealthiest Americans) and two-thirds of it is supposed to come from reallocations of taxpayer money the federal government is already scheduled to receive.1 A coalition of pharmaceutical industry CEOs met with the President in July and have since pledged $80 billion in cost savings over the coming decade to help pay for the reform.2

Would Medicare be cut? Republicans and Democrats disagree. “Nobody is talking about trying to change Medicare benefits,” President Obama stated during a July AARP teleconference. “What we want to do is to eliminate some of the waste that is being paid for out of the Medicare trust fund.” The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office figures that the House of Representatives version of the bill would trim Medicare spending by $500 billion across the next decade with no impact on Medicare benefits. AARP claims that “none of the health care reform proposals being considered by Congress would cut Medicare benefits or increase your out-of-pocket costs for Medicare services.” However, in an August 15 Republican Party radio address, Sen. Orrin Hatch contended that “hundreds of billions of dollars” will be cut from Medicare and used to “expand a financially-strapped Medicaid program and create another government-run plan.”3,4

Would this run up the deficit further? The Congressional Budget Office says yes. It forecasts that President Obama’s reforms would add $239 billion to the federal deficit. Few on Capitol Hill think the reform effort could pay for itself.5

Would health care be rationed? That’s what ex-Alaska Governor Sarah Palin contended in a Facebook post. The potential Republican presidential candidate stated that the reforms would lead to a system that would “refuse to allocate medical resources to the elderly, the infirm, and the disabled who have less economic potential.” Democrats and other supporters of the reforms counter her claim by saying that the current health care system already features “rationed” care dictated by health insurance company bureaucrats.6

Would there really be “death panels”? Earlier this month, Palin contended that the President’s health care reform proposals included “death panels” that would decide if seriously ill patients would live or die. In the eyes of many legislators, Palin was wildly misinterpreting a provision in the health care reform bill that would allow doctors to offer voluntary consultations about living wills, hospice care, health care directives and pain medication to patients and loved ones facing end-of-life decisions. (If the reforms pass, Medicare would pay physicians to provide this consulting.) The Senate Finance Committee has dropped this idea from its version of the proposed legislation; it remains in the House version.7

Would the government (and taxpayer dollars) pay for abortions? It is uncertain. In one variant of the health care reform bill, abortions would have to be available via at least one insurance plan; however, Democrats say any abortions would be paid through patient premiums.5

Would undocumented immigrants get free health care? On the CBS Evening News, Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD) was heard stating, “Illegal aliens will not be in this bill, period, the end.” As currently written, the legislation states that only those lawfully present in the United States can qualify for health coverage. Yet what if one family member is in America legally, but others aren’t? Could his or her relatives become eligible? Republicans say that the proposed legislation offers no way to effectively stop undocumented immigrants from applying for health care benefits.5

The debate rages on. Politically, the health care reform effort seems poised to end up being the story of the year – and the contention and negotiation will certainly last into fall. Stay tuned.






Citations.
1 baltimoresun.com/health/health-care/bal-health care-faq,0,5260471.story [8/14/09]
2 baltimoresun.com/business/bal-bz.pharma14aug14,0,5384283.story [8/14/09]
3 politics.theatlantic.com/2009/08/gop_dems_want_to_spend_money_to_cut_medicare.php [8/14/09]
4 factcheck.org/2009/08/seven-falsehoods-about-health-care/ [8/14/09]
5 cbsnews.com/stories/2009/08/12/eveningnews/main5237960.shtml [8/12/09]
6 politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2009/08/14/palin-warns-of-disturbing-health-care-rationing/ [8/14/09]
7 latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-health-end-of-life14-2009aug14,0,4670272.story [8/14/09]

__________________________________________________________

Friends or family need a little extra help? To refer a client, call us and we will help you get your friends and family members on-board with our services. To learn more about the types of clients we serve, visit our website at
http://www.soundfinancialplanning.net/ .
__________________________________________________________

Sound Financial Planning, Inc.
http://www.soundfinancialplanning.net/
Primary Office
321 West Washington St., Suite 329
Mount Vernon, WA 98273
Phone: (360) 336-6527
Secondary Office
650 Mullis St., Suite 101
Friday Harbor, WA 98250
(360) 378-3022

PLEASE READ THIS WARNING: All e-mail sent to or from this address will be received or otherwise recorded by the Sound Financial Planning, Inc. corporate e-mail system and is subject to archival, monitoring and/or review, by and/or disclosure to, someone other than the recipient. This message is intended only for the use of the person(s) ("intended recipient") to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential. If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender as soon as possible and delete the message without reading it or making a copy. Any dissemination, distribution, copying, or other use of this message or any of its content by any person other than the intended recipient is strictly prohibited. Sound Financial Planning, Inc. has taken precautions to screen this message for viruses, but we cannot guarantee that it is virus free nor are we responsible for any damage that may be caused by this message. Sound Financial Planning, Inc. only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or notice filed, or excluded or exempted from registration requirements. Follow-up and individualized responses that involve either the effecting or attempting to effect transactions in securities or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, as the case may be, will not be made absent compliance with state investment adviser and investment adviser representative registration requirements, or an applicable exemption or exclusion. This information should not be construed as investment advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

China, Japan and Our Debt

Will other countries keep buying our Treasuries?

If China and Japan change their minds, could the United States have a problem? Since 1980, the U.S. has imported more than it has exported.1 It makes up for this trade deficit by issuing Treasury bonds and other debt instruments. Foreign governments have long lined up to buy them.

China holds almost $800 billion of U.S. Treasuries. That’s the April 2009 figure from the U.S. Treasury (at this moment, the most recent data). In addition, Japan has $686 billion in Treasuries. Hong Kong has $81 billion, Taiwan $78 billion, Singapore $40 billion, India $39 billion, and South Korea $35 billion. Away from Asia, Great Britain holds $153 billion, Russia holds $137 billion, and Brazil holds $126 billion. 2 U.S. Treasury bonds offer these institutional investors some stability in uncertain times.

Is China and Japan wary of buying more? Earlier in the decade, China, Japan and other nations readily bought Treasuries. From 2004-2008, China spent as much as 14% of its GDP on the purchase of foreign debt - mostly American debt.3

What happened as a result? China, Japan and other creditor countries got a nice return on their investment and a strong export market. We got to buy inexpensive imports. This kept the dollar strong and interest rates low.

Now we have two problems that could potentially sour this relationship. The economies of China, Japan and other countries have suffered along with ours in the global recession. Moreover, the U.S. has run up a huge budget deficit to accompany its trade deficit. Our President is on record as saying that we may have trillion-dollar deficits for “years to come.”

Under these conditions, China and Japan are naturally getting leery of holding so much American debt (especially when the Federal Reserve is printing money to buy it). China needs to pay for its own $600 billion stimulus package, and Japan announced a $154 billion stimulus in April. Tax revenues in both economies have declined with the recession. Government regulators in China have ordered banks to direct money this year to local governments and small- and medium-sized businesses. All this means China and Japan aren’t as eager for dollars and Treasuries as they were a few years ago.3,4

What if other nations stop buying our debt? There are three potential side effects. One, interest rates would likely increase as there would be fewer buyers for Treasuries. Two, the dollar could weaken. Three, long-term bond prices could fall.

Voices on the fringe worry about a scenario in which the central banks of China, Japan and other nations jettison dollars en masse or abruptly quit buying U.S. debt. Realistically, the odds of something like this happening are slim. These countries would have nothing to gain by stifling America’s chances for economic recovery, and these decisions would greatly harm the world economy.

Now for some good news. In May, our trade deficit fell to its lowest level since November 1999. It shrank 9.8% in May from April levels, defying analysts’ expectations – and offering a hint of economic recovery. Our deficit with China increased by $4.4 billion for May, but the 2009 increase is 12.6% under last year’s pace. The U.S. deficit with Japan reduced to its lowest level in more than 20 years last month.5

More good news. Domestic and foreign demand for Treasuries is still strong – in its auction in the first full week of July, the Treasury quickly sold $19 billion of 10-year notes, with Treasury yields hitting 6½-week lows.6 At least in the short term, it appears the government doesn’t have to struggle for buyers to fund its reforms and rescue efforts.

Sincerely,

William T. Morrissey, CFP®



Citations.
1 moneycentral.msn.com/content/invest/extra/P140049.asp [1/5/06]
2 treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt [6/15/09]
3 nytimes.com/2009/01/08/business/worldbusiness/08yuan.html [1/8/09]
4 nytimes.com/2009/04/09/business/global/09yen.html [4/9/09]
5 finance.yahoo.com/news/May-trade-deficit-apf-2840686452.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode= [7/10/09]
6 forbes.com/feeds/reuters/2009/07/08/2009-07-08T205823Z_01_N08405527_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-GLOBAL-WRAPUP-6.html [7/8/09]



Friends or family need a little extra help? To refer a client, call us and we will help you get your friends and family members on-board with our services. To learn more about the types of clients we serve, visit our website at http://www.soundfinancialplanning.net/ .


Sound Financial Planning, Inc.
http://www.soundfinancialplanning.net/
Primary Office
321 West Washington St., Suite 329
Mount Vernon, WA 98273
Phone: (360) 336-6527
Secondary Office
650 Mullis St., Suite 101
Friday Harbor, WA 98250
(360) 378-3022

PLEASE READ THIS WARNING: All e-mail sent to or from this address will be received or otherwise recorded by the Sound Financial Planning, Inc. corporate e-mail system and is subject to archival, monitoring and/or review, by and/or disclosure to, someone other than the recipient. This message is intended only for the use of the person(s) ("intended recipient") to whom it is addressed. It may contain information that is privileged and confidential. If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender as soon as possible and delete the message without reading it or making a copy. Any dissemination, distribution, copying, or other use of this message or any of its content by any person other than the intended recipient is strictly prohibited. Sound Financial Planning, Inc. has taken precautions to screen this message for viruses, but we cannot guarantee that it is virus free nor are we responsible for any damage that may be caused by this message. Sound Financial Planning, Inc. only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or notice filed, or excluded or exempted from registration requirements. Follow-up and individualized responses that involve either the effecting or attempting to effect transactions in securities or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, as the case may be, will not be made absent compliance with state investment adviser and investment adviser representative registration requirements, or an applicable exemption or exclusion. This information should not be construed as investment advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.